Simulations/Chess Olympiad 2026

Chess Olympiad 2026

Starts Sep 1611 rounds · 4 boards · Swisschess-results

Over 200 national teams battle 4v4 across 11 Swiss rounds in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, for Olympiad gold.

We simulate the remaining rounds 10,000 times after every round, pairing teams Swiss-style and playing out each board from the players' ratings. Use the Scenario Builder to lock in match results and see how the medal picture changes.

Teams

202

playing

Rounds

0 / 11

starts Sept 16

Simulations

10,000

after round 0

Updated

—

Sep 16

Gold Medal Race

Chance of winning gold · bar shows gold, silver and bronze out of 100%

GoldSilverBronze

1
United States of America#138.8%podium 72.3%
2
India#223.4%podium 58.0%
3
Uzbekistan#315.4%podium 46.1%
4
China#49.9%podium 35.1%
5
Netherlands#63.4%podium 18.1%
6
Germany#53.1%podium 17.3%
7
Azerbaijan#72.3%podium 13.8%
8
Hungary#81.3%podium 9.2%
9
France#90.7%podium 6.0%
10
Armenia#100.5%podium 4.7%

Team Odds

Click a team for roster, results and finish distribution

Pos	Team	Rtg	MP	Gold ▼	Podium	Top 10	Silver
United States of America#1	2753	38.8%	72.3%	96.0%	20.7%	12.8%	3.2
India#2	2735	23.4%	58.0%	92.6%	20.4%	14.2%	4.3
Uzbekistan#3	2720	15.4%	46.1%	88.2%	16.3%	14.3%	5.4
China#4	2707	9.9%	35.1%	82.2%	12.6%	12.6%	6.7
Netherlands#6	2675	3.4%	18.1%	69.6%	6.3%	8.3%	9.0
Germany#5	2677	3.1%	17.3%	67.5%	6.5%	7.7%	9.3
Azerbaijan#7	2667	2.3%	13.8%	63.8%	4.4%	7.2%	10.1
Hungary#8	2652	1.3%	9.2%	55.0%	3.4%	4.5%	11.4
France#9	2638	0.7%	6.0%	45.0%	1.9%	3.4%	13.3
Armenia#10	2637	0.5%	4.7%	42.9%	1.8%	2.5%	13.6
England#11	2624	0.3%	3.2%	35.8%	0.8%	2.1%	14.9
Ukraine#12	2623	0.3%	3.3%	34.0%	1.1%	1.9%	15.2
Turkiye#14	2616	0.2%	2.3%	30.3%	0.8%	1.4%	16.2
Spain#13	2620	0.1%	2.7%	31.5%	0.8%	1.8%	15.8
Poland#16	2615	0.1%	2.1%	28.5%	0.5%	1.5%	16.6
Serbia#15	2616	0.1%	2.2%	30.6%	0.7%	1.4%	16.0
Iran#18	2587	0.1%	0.6%	14.6%	0.1%	0.4%	20.9
Croatia#17	2589	<0.1%	0.7%	15.8%	0.2%	0.5%	21.0
Czech Republic#20	2585	<0.1%	0.6%	13.1%	0.2%	0.4%	21.7
Norway#21	2577	<0.1%	0.3%	10.0%	0.1%	0.2%	23.2
Greece#19	2585	<0.1%	0.5%	12.8%	0.1%	0.3%	21.8
Uzbekistan 2#30	2532	<0.1%	<0.1%	1.2%	0.0%	<0.1%	32.2
Israel#22	2565	0.0%	0.2%	4.5%	0.1%	0.1%	27.0
Romania#23	2562	0.0%	0.1%	5.8%	<0.1%	0.1%	25.8
Argentina#24	2559	0.0%	0.2%	5.0%	0.1%	0.1%	26.3

Showing 25 of 202 teams

5 registered teams not playing

Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, FIDE/UNHCR Refugee Team, Central African Republic, Marshall Islands

Scenario Builder

Pick match winners and see how the gold-medal odds shift

Tap the team you think wins, or = for a drawn match.Sorted by combined rating · 101 matches

How it works

Board-by-board Monte Carlo

Every remaining match is played out on all four boards from the players' ratings, colour and draw tendencies, then scored 2/1/0 in match points.

Swiss pairings, simulated

Each simulation re-pairs the field round after round by score group, so future opponents are uncertain — exactly as in the real event.

Scenario explorer

Picking a result keeps only the simulations where it happened. Pick a published pairing, or a team's result in a round whose pairings aren't out yet.

Standings shown during the event are computed from match results (match points, then game points) and may differ from the official tiebreaks. For the model details see the simulation code and How Our Chess Tournament Predictions Work.