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Simulations/Chess Olympiad 2026

Chess Olympiad 2026

Final11 rounds · 4 boards · Swisschess-results

Over 200 national teams battle 4v4 across 11 Swiss rounds in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, for Olympiad gold.

Final · 11 rounds · 206 teams10,000 simulations per roundEnded September 27, 2026

Champions

Final standings · 11 rounds · Samarkand

  1. Gold

    Uzbekistan

    20 MP · 32.5 GP · 455.5 SB

    Pre-tournament gold odds: 18.0%

  2. Silver

    India

    18 MP · 28.5 GP · 405.5 SB

    Decided on tiebreak — level with Germany on match points and game points, ahead by 19.0 on Sonneborn-Berger.

    Pre-tournament gold odds: 23.4%

  3. Bronze

    Germany

    18 MP · 28.5 GP · 386.5 SB

    Pre-tournament gold odds: 3.2%

Gold Race — Going Into Round 11

Chance of winning gold as it stood after round 10, with one round left to play. Bar shows the full podium out of 100%.GoldSilverBronze

Team Odds

Final standings · gold odds are as they stood before the last round · select a team for its full profile

Open details
Uzbekistan#3
20
92.8%
1.1
India#2
18
7.2%
2.2
Germany#5
18
0.0%
4.8
United States of America#1
17
0.0%
4.9
Azerbaijan#7
17
0.0%
8.3
Armenia#10
17
0.0%
11.1
Hungary#8
17
0.0%
10.6
China#4
16
0.0%
9.4
France#9
16
0.0%
14.3
Spain#13
16
0.0%
15.1
Ukraine#12
16
0.0%
8.8
England#11
16
0.0%
16.6
Turkiye#14
15
0.0%
15.2
Poland#16
15
0.0%
16.2
Iran#18
15
0.0%
19.5
Netherlands#6
15
0.0%
11.5
Romania#23
15
0.0%
27.0
Uzbekistan 2#30
15
0.0%
18.4
Vietnam#47
15
0.0%
21.5
Croatia#17
15
0.0%
12.9
Czech Republic#20
15
0.0%
30.0
Serbia#15
15
0.0%
16.1
Argentina#24
15
0.0%
30.8
Israel#22
15
0.0%
36.0
Kazakhstan#35
15
0.0%
21.8
Showing 25 of 206 teams

How it works

Board-by-board Monte Carlo

Every remaining match is played out on all four boards from the players' ratings, colour and draw tendencies, then scored 2/1/0 in match points.

Swiss pairings, simulated

Each simulation re-pairs the field round after round by score group, so future opponents are uncertain — exactly as in the real event.

Scenario explorer

Picking a result keeps only the simulations where it happened. Pick a published pairing, or a team's result in a round whose pairings aren't out yet.

Standings shown during the event are computed from match results (match points, then game points) and may differ from the official tiebreaks. For the model details see the simulation code and How Our Chess Tournament Predictions Work.