2026 Women's Candidates Tournament
8-player double round-robinFIDE
The Women's Candidates Tournament determines the challenger for the World Chess Championship, who will face Ju Wenjun.
Who will challenge Ju Wenjun for the title? We ran over one million Monte Carlo simulations of the Women’s Candidates Tournament to find out. Use the Scenario Builder to set game outcomes and see how the probabilities shift in real time.
Simulation Results
Scenario Builder
Select game outcomes to simulate custom scenarios
Round 1 — Completed
Deshmukh½-½Muzychuk
Rameshbabu½-½Assaubayeva
Goryachkina½-½Lagno
Zhu½-½Tan
Round 2 — Completed
Muzychuk½-½Tan
Lagno½-½Zhu
Assaubayeva½-½Goryachkina
Deshmukh½-½Rameshbabu
Round 3 — Completed
Rameshbabu½-½Muzychuk
Goryachkina½-½Deshmukh
Zhu0-1Assaubayeva
Tan0-1Lagno
Round 4 — Completed
Muzychuk1-0Lagno
Assaubayeva½-½Tan
Deshmukh0-1Zhu
Rameshbabu½-½Goryachkina
Round 5 — Completed
Goryachkina½-½Muzychuk
Zhu1-0Rameshbabu
Tan½-½Deshmukh
Lagno1-0Assaubayeva
Round 6 — Completed
Zhu0-1Muzychuk
Tan½-½Goryachkina
Lagno0-1Rameshbabu
Assaubayeva0-1Deshmukh
Round 7 — Completed
Muzychuk½-½Assaubayeva
Deshmukh½-½Lagno
Rameshbabu1-0Tan
Goryachkina½-½Zhu
Round 8 — Completed
Muzychuk0-1Deshmukh
Assaubayeva½-½Rameshbabu
Lagno1-0Goryachkina
Tan0-1Zhu
Round 9 — Completed
Tan½-½Muzychuk
Zhu1-0Lagno
Goryachkina½-½Assaubayeva
Rameshbabu1-0Deshmukh
How it works
Monte Carlo Sims
Over 1M simulations using Elo, color advantage, and draw rates.
Scenario Explorer
Lock in results and explore “what if” scenarios.
Live Tracking
Actual results baked in automatically as rounds complete.
For a deeper dive, check out How Our Chess Tournament Predictions Work on the blog.