2026 Candidates Tournament
8-player double round-robin · The Candidates Tournament determines the challenger for the World Chess Championship, who will face D. Gukesh. FIDE →
Who will challenge Gukesh for the crown? We ran over one million Monte Carlo simulations of the Candidates Tournament to find out. Use the Scenario Builder to set game outcomes and see how the probabilities shift in real time.
Simulation Results
Scenario Builder
Select game outcomes to simulate custom scenarios
How it works
Each simulation plays out every remaining game of the 14-round double round-robin. Individual game outcomes are drawn from a model that accounts for each player’s Elo rating, color advantage, and historical draw rates at the elite level. After over a million full tournament simulations, we tally how often each player finishes first to produce win probabilities.
When you lock in results with the Scenario Builder, those outcomes become fixed — simulations only randomize the games you haven’t set. This lets you explore “what if” scenarios: What happens if Caruana wins his next game? What if Nakamura draws? The chart updates instantly to reflect your custom scenario.
As the real tournament progresses, actual results are baked into the model automatically. The chart tracks how each player’s chances evolve round by round — spikes, collapses, and everything in between.
For a deeper dive into the underlying model and methodology, check out How Our Chess Tournament Predictions Work on the Pawnalyze blog.