2026 Candidates Tournament
8-player double round-robinFIDE
The Candidates Tournament determined the challenger for the World Chess Championship, who will face Gukesh D.
Javokhir Sindarov won the 2026 Candidates Tournament and will face Gukesh D for the World Championship. We ran over one million Monte Carlo simulations throughout the event — use the Scenario Builder to replay alternate histories.
Simulation Results
Scenario Builder
Select game outcomes to simulate custom scenarios
Round 1 — Completed
Sindarov1-0Esipenko
Bluebaum½-½Wei
Praggnanandhaa R1-0Giri
Caruana1-0Nakamura
Round 2 — Completed
Esipenko½-½Nakamura
Giri½-½Caruana
Wei½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Sindarov½-½Bluebaum
Round 3 — Completed
Bluebaum½-½Esipenko
Praggnanandhaa R0-1Sindarov
Caruana1-0Wei
Nakamura½-½Giri
Round 4 — Completed
Esipenko0-1Giri
Wei½-½Nakamura
Sindarov1-0Caruana
Bluebaum½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Round 5 — Completed
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Esipenko
Caruana1-0Bluebaum
Nakamura0-1Sindarov
Giri½-½Wei
Round 6 — Completed
Caruana½-½Esipenko
Nakamura½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Giri½-½Bluebaum
Wei0-1Sindarov
Round 7 — Completed
Esipenko0-1Wei
Sindarov½-½Giri
Bluebaum½-½Nakamura
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Caruana
Round 8 — Completed
Esipenko½-½Sindarov
Wei½-½Bluebaum
Giri1-0Praggnanandhaa R
Nakamura1-0Caruana
Round 9 — Completed
Nakamura½-½Esipenko
Caruana0-1Giri
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Wei
Bluebaum½-½Sindarov
Round 10 — Completed
Esipenko½-½Bluebaum
Sindarov1-0Praggnanandhaa R
Wei½-½Caruana
Giri½-½Nakamura
Round 11 — Completed
Giri½-½Esipenko
Nakamura½-½Wei
Caruana½-½Sindarov
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Bluebaum
Round 12 — Completed
Esipenko½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Bluebaum½-½Caruana
Sindarov½-½Nakamura
Wei½-½Giri
Round 13 — Completed
Wei1-0Esipenko
Giri½-½Sindarov
Nakamura½-½Bluebaum
Caruana½-½Praggnanandhaa R
Round 14 — Completed
Esipenko0-1Caruana
Praggnanandhaa R½-½Nakamura
Bluebaum0-1Giri
Sindarov½-½Wei
How it works
Monte Carlo Sims
Over 1M simulations using Elo, color advantage, and draw rates.
Scenario Explorer
Lock in results and explore “what if” scenarios.
Round-by-Round Tracking
Actual results were baked in round by round as games completed — the final simulated round reflects the tournament as played.
For a deeper dive, check out How Our Chess Tournament Predictions Work on the blog.